Amsterdam is growing, and is predicted to continue growing in the coming decades. The population is expected to increase from 872,000 in 2019 to 1,062,500 by 2040. The growth will influence the (future) service needs of the city’s residents. In order to respond effectively to the anticipated growth, the city authorities need to be able to map out the demand for particular services in existing and new residential districts. At the request of the City of Amsterdam, ahti has developed a method for using data to predict future healthcare needs and their distribution across the city districts so that provision can be adapted to predicted demographic developments in good time. Ahti handed the project over to the City in 2019.

City’s policies must cater for the growth of Amsterdam

When a new area is developed, it is important for the City to know what that area’s population will be like. The City can then decide what types and levels of social service provision will be needed. Such insight needs to be gained in good time, so that provision for appropriate accommodation and implementation of the services can be made in the area development plan. It is also important to keep up with population changes in existing areas of the city, so that the demand for and supply of social services can be matched as well as possible. Until recently, such matching was not sufficiently data-led, and there was consequently a risk of excessive, inadequate or delayed service realisation.

Predicting use of youth and elderly care using Statistics Netherlands microdata

The focus of this project is the City of Amsterdam’s Youth and Care Services Domain. In consultation with youth and elderly care professionals, an inventory was made of the factors that affect the use of day care services. The inventory covers demographic factors, but also takes area-specific factors into account. Based on this input, we built a model using the Statistics Netherlands microdata that can predict the use of day care services with considerable reliability. The model makes it possible to predict the levels of day care service provision that will be needed in new areas, or the impact of potential changes (e.g. gentrification) on the demand for services in existing areas. At the same time, the model can be used as an ‘early warning system’ by monitoring the make-up of neighbourhood populations. If the predictions differ significantly from the previous year, the system will flag up the change so that policy-makers can adapt service provision accordingly.

Status of the City Growth project

We completed the analyses and predictions at the end of 2019 and made them available on a dashboard. This dashboard, along with the prediction model, has been handed over to the City of Amsterdam so they can make use of it themselves.

Partner

• City of Amsterdam, Social Cluster, Youth and Care Services departments

Contact

Want more information or do you have a question? Please contact Rachel van Beem (Head of Projects).